Why The Stakes are High

Why the stakes are high, The global community doesn't often agree - but there seems to be consensus that COP26, now under way in Glasgow, Scotland

The global community doesn't often agree - but there seems to be consensus that COP26, now under way in Glasgow, Scotland, is the most important convening of the Conference of Parties since COP21 in 2015, when the landmark Paris Agreement was born.

Here are some of the factors that will make COP26 one of the most high-stakes COPs to date.

1. The climate science is dire

Back in the dog days of summer, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Sixth Assessment Report, which provided an analysis on climate science. The report, perhaps unsurprisingly, had an unsettling takeaway: Global sea level rise, wildfires and extreme waves are already irreversible for millennia to come.

A critically important note, however, is that this reality should not produce resignation: The report also emphasized that every fraction of a degree is crucial when it comes to limiting global temperature rise, so negotiators should continue to use every arrow in their quiver of climate change adaptation and mitigation.

2. We’re entering the second NDC cycle

This year, with the Paris Agreement’s sixth birthday (or perhaps its fifth, due to the 2020 “leap year”), countries are expected to submit more stringent nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that chart a path to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. As a reminder, the Paris Agreement was designed with the expectation that countries ratchet up the ambition of their commitments every five years.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) released an updated synthesis report that found that the new pledges for 2030, including new or updated NDCs and other 2030 commitments, are still inadequate: They reduce projected 2030 emissions by only 7.5%—far short of the 30% needed to keep the global average temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius and 55% required for only a 1.5 C rise. The report estimates that the sum of the current pledges would still result in global warming of about 2.7 C by the end of the century.

3. The U.S. is returning

This is the first COP since 2016 that the U.S. will attend in an official capacity. As the largest economy and emitter in the world, the ability of the U.S. delegation—which includes President Biden, several cabinet members and senior administration officials, and more than a dozen members of Congress from both sides of the aisle—to make credible commitments will set the tone for the entire negotiating process.

In April, Biden announced a new NDC that pledges to reduce U.S. emissions by 50–52% from 2005 levels by 2030 (for comparison, the United States' first NDC target was reducing emissions 26–28% below 2005 levels by 2025). The final size and scope of the Infrastructure and Jobs Creation Act, and Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) Framework—a $1.75 trillion reconciliation proposal that the White House released Thursday—will affect our ability to meet the new NDC. According to a fact sheet published by the White House, the BBB framework would invest $555 billion across buildings, transportation, industry, electricity, agriculture and climate-smart practices across lands and waters, making it the largest single investment in our clean energy economy in history.

It’s hard to overstate the importance of these twin pieces of legislation; passing both will send a strong signal that nations need to pair commitments with targeted policy.

While hopes were high that Congress would pass one or both bills before the climate talks end, that seems unlikely. The bill is still being negotiated, and once agreed upon at a high level, text still needs to be written, scored by the Congressional Budget Office and socialized with members of Congress.

4. There's a gap in climate finance commitments

Pundits are suggesting that climate finance will be a contentious topic at the COP. Climate finance in this context means that those nations which have achieved developed economies through fossil fuels have agreed to provide funds to assist the less-developed countries, which are often disproportionately impacted by climate change, to develop using clean energy.

To this end, developed nations collectively pledged to raise $100 billion annually in finance between 2009 and 2020. But in 2019, developed countries were $20 billion short of their pledge. Developed nations will need to commit to ponying up more money, or developing nations may walk away from negotiations. For his part, Biden says, he will seek Congressional support to double international climate aid to $11.4 billion a year by 2024. Securing this funding will be key for demonstrating a legitimate commitment to global partners.

5. The Paris Rulebook needs to be finalized

We should also expect to have some guidance on the Paris Agreement’s implementation by the end of the two-week conference. Negotiators are expected to reach consensus on some thorny issues, such as how countries should report progress, a deadline structure for creating pledges and a framework on how international carbon markets should function.

USGBC and its allies, including the Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction, the Business Council for Sustainable Energy, the World Green Building Council and other members of the green building community, will be attending with the goal of supporting the inclusion of building sector decarbonization in NDCs. USGBC’s COP26 theme is "Embracing Green, Net Zero Buildings by 2030, for Prosperity and Health.” Learn more about the full suite of USGBC events.

• [accordion]
• (1) COP26: Everything you need to know
• 
• (2) What is COP26 and why is it so important?
• 
• (3) Green Buildings and the Bottom Line
• (4) The Cost of LEED - Analysis of the Construction